Draft — These backtests have not yet been independently verified. Do not trade based on this data.
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Study — The Bilbo Golden Gate

The Bilbo Golden Gate:
momentum-confirmed triggers
complete almost instantly.

The Saty Phase Oscillator on the 60-minute timeframe tells you whether a Golden Gate entry (at 38.2%) has real momentum to complete through 61.8% — or if it's likely to stall. Across 6,582 trading days and 25 years of SPY data, the difference is dramatic.

Draft — Demoted from Core 2026-04-26
This study is being rebuilt due to a confirmed look-ahead bug in the 1h Phase Oscillator join: the backtest reads the not-yet-closed current hour bar at trigger time, leaking up to 60 min of forward information. Point-in-time-safe reruns show the headline 90% bear cohort is closer to ~85% and the worst buckets partly invert. Treat all numbers below as upper bounds until the rebuild lands. Full reasoning → drafts.html#bilbo-golden-gate.

The Golden Gate is the zone between the 38.2% and 61.8% ATR levels. It “fires” when price enters at 38.2% and “completes” when it reaches 61.8%. On average it completes about 63–65% of the time. But that average hides a wide range — depending on what the 60-minute Phase Oscillator is doing at the moment the 38.2% level is hit.

77.1%
Bullish GG completion when
PO is High & Rising (vs 63% baseline)
90.3%
Bearish GG completion when
PO is Low & Falling (vs 65% baseline)
Bullish Golden Gate
60m Phase OscillatorOverallWithin 1hSamples
Bearish Golden Gate
60m Phase OscillatorOverallWithin 1hSamples

Reading this table: “PO High + Rising” means the 60-minute Phase Oscillator was above 61.8 and increasing at the moment the trigger fired. The further the PO is in the direction of the trade, the more likely the Golden Gate completes.

Completion rate only tells half the story. When the Bilbo conditions are met, the Golden Gate doesn't just complete more often — it completes on the same 10-minute candle the majority of the time. Price doesn't pause at the trigger. It blows through.

34.8min
Mean completion time
Bullish, PO High + Rising
24.3min
Mean completion time
Bearish, PO Low + Falling
60min
Mean completion time
Baseline (all triggers)

Cumulative completion by time after trigger

Same bar = same 10-minute candle. When 38.2% and 61.8% are both hit within a single candle, price moved through the entire Golden Gate zone without pausing. This is momentum in its purest form.

10m vs 60m PO Comparison Bilbo Continuation
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