The Bilbo Golden Gate study showed that momentum-confirmed triggers complete to 61.8% far more often. But 61.8% is just the first target. What are the odds of reaching 78.6%, full ATR, or beyond?
After price enters the Golden Gate at 38.2%, we tracked whether it reached each subsequent ATR level — 61.8%, 78.6%, 100% (full ATR), and the extension levels at 123.6%, 161.8%, and 200% — all within the same RTH session. We then split the results by the 1-hour Phase Oscillator state at the moment the 38.2% level was hit.
The bearish Bilbo is extraordinary. When the 1-hour PO is Low + Falling at the moment of Golden Gate entry, the probability of reaching a full ATR move (66%) is higher than the baseline probability of just completing the Golden Gate to 61.8% (65%). Strong bearish momentum doesn't just complete the Golden Gate — it blows through it.
Consider letting Bilbo winners run. When the 1-hour PO confirms the Golden Gate direction, the standard target of 61.8% leaves significant edge on the table. For a bearish Bilbo, there's a 66% chance of reaching the full ATR — and even 44% odds of hitting 123.6%. Consider trailing your stop rather than taking profit at the first target.
Counter-trend entries are significantly weaker at every level. A bullish GG when the PO is mid + falling completes to 61.8% only 52% of the time and reaches the full ATR just 19%. The momentum filter doesn't just improve the first target — it compounds at every subsequent level.
The bearish edge is consistently stronger than bullish. Bearish Bilbo entries reach extension levels at roughly 2–3x the baseline rate, while bullish reaches them at 1.5–2x. Selling pressure carries further and more reliably than buying pressure.