Draft — These backtests have not yet been independently verified. Do not trade based on this data.
Honest residual — open inside, crosses intraday
The headline ~80% trigger→38.2% rate below conflates three cohorts: days that opened beyond the trigger (Cat A — trivial), days that gap-opened inside and crossed (Cat B), and the
tradable residual — days that opened inside the trigger and crossed it intraday. On the residual cohort alone, completion rates are
~52% bull (1224/2355) and
~56% bear (1325/2339). The full-sample percentages are still useful for context, but the tradable signal is the residual.
📋 View the complete Golden Gate Cheat Sheet →