Using monthly ATR levels, this study tracks how often the Golden Gate (38.2% to 61.8%) completes across 1 to 20 trading days. The higher-timeframe filter is the weekly Phase Oscillator — specifically the previous week’s closing value. Unlike day and multi-day GGs, swing moves take much longer to develop.
Monthly ATR levels define the widest range in the study series. Rather than expecting completion within a single session or even a week, the Golden Gate is tracked across 1 to 20 trading days (roughly one calendar month) after the 38.2% level is hit.
The filter uses the weekly Phase Oscillator (previous week’s close). This eliminates look-ahead bias — you know the PO state before the week begins. The full ATR target is the 100% monthly ATR level.
Why weekly PO? At the monthly timeframe, the daily PO cycles too fast to be a meaningful filter. The previous week’s PO is the appropriate higher-timeframe momentum lens for swing setups.
Swing Golden Gates behave fundamentally differently from daily and multi-day. Day 1 completion is dramatically lower — only 10.7% bullish and 36.1% bearish compared to 63–72% at shorter timeframes. The monthly range simply needs more time to resolve.
Unlike daily and multi-day studies where the Phase Oscillator dramatically filters winners from losers, the weekly PO adds minimal edge at the monthly timeframe. There simply aren’t enough extreme weekly PO readings to create a strong Bilbo signal.
Bearish is 3.4x faster on day 1. 36.1% bearish completion vs 10.7% bullish. This asymmetry echoes every timeframe — bearish moves are simply faster — but the gap is most dramatic at the monthly level.
Bullish monthly Golden Gate completion rates by previous week’s PO state. n=298 total entries. Only PO buckets with n≥15 are shown.
| Metric | Day 1 | Day 3 | Day 5 | Day 10 | Day 15 | Day 20 |
|---|
| Weekly PO State | Day 1 | Day 3 | Day 5 | Day 10 | Day 15 | Day 20 | n |
|---|
Bearish monthly Golden Gate completion rates by previous week’s PO state. n=233 total entries. Bearish moves start much faster — 36.1% complete on day 1 vs just 10.7% bullish.
| Metric | Day 1 | Day 3 | Day 5 | Day 10 | Day 15 | Day 20 |
|---|
| Weekly PO State | Day 1 | Day 3 | Day 5 | Day 10 | Day 15 | Day 20 | n |
|---|
No clear Bilbo signal. Unlike daily and multi-day studies, the weekly PO doesn’t differentiate strongly at the monthly timeframe. The PO buckets show similar completion rates — the edge diminishes as the timeframe increases.
How swing GG completion compares to daily and multi-day. The same fundamental pattern — bearish faster than bullish, ~70–80% eventual completion — holds across all timeframes, but the speed is radically different.
Same destination, different speed. All three timeframes converge to ~73–84% completion eventually. The difference is how long it takes: daily GGs resolve in minutes, multi-day in 1–2 sessions, and swing GGs need weeks.
1. Monthly GGs take MUCH longer. Only 11% bullish and 36% bearish complete on day 1, compared to 63%/65% for daily GGs. The monthly ATR range is simply too wide for a single session.
2. Bearish is 3x faster than bullish on day 1. This echoes the asymmetry seen at every timeframe, but it’s most extreme here. Bearish swing setups develop faster, period.
3. By day 20, 73–77% complete. The final completion rate is similar to daily GGs, just stretched over ~1 calendar month. Patience is the key variable.
4. Weekly PO adds minimal edge. Unlike the dramatic Bilbo effect with 1h PO (day mode) and daily PO (multi-day), the weekly PO doesn’t produce actionable differentiation at this timeframe.
5. Full ATR is very rare. Only 26% bullish and 45% bearish reach the full monthly ATR by day 20. The 61.8% target is the realistic objective for swing GG trades.