Milkman Trades — Multi-Day & Swing Golden Gate
Weekly ATR (1–5 days) & Monthly ATR (1–20 days) — 25 years of SPY (2000–2025)
01 — Multi-Day GG: Bullish (Weekly ATR)
Bullish weekly GG, n=901
73.9%
Bilbo day 1
High+Rising (n=115)
65.0%
Baseline day 1
All entries
Baseline
| Metric | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 |
|---|
| Baseline (61.8%) | 65.0% | 74.3% | 79.5% | 82.0% | 84.1% |
| Baseline Full ATR | 23.5% | 30.9% | 37.1% | 43.7% | 47.3% |
Bilbo (Daily PO)
| Daily PO State | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 |
|---|
| High + Rising | 73.9% | 79.1% | 81.7% | 83.5% | 84.3% |
| High + Falling | 58.3% | 70.8% | 81.2% | 85.4% | 89.6% |
| Mid + Rising | 68.2% | 77.0% | 82.1% | 83.5% | 85.9% |
| Mid + Falling | 52.7% | 64.9% | 70.7% | 76.6% | 78.2% |
01 — Multi-Day GG: Bearish (Weekly ATR)
Bearish weekly GG, n=706
94.4%
Bilbo day 1
Low+Falling (n=54)
72.0%
Baseline day 1
All entries
Baseline
| Metric | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 |
|---|
| Baseline (61.8%) | 72.0% | 77.2% | 80.3% | 82.0% | 83.0% |
| Baseline Full ATR | 34.7% | 43.3% | 47.7% | 52.5% | 55.8% |
Bilbo (Daily PO)
| Daily PO State | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 |
|---|
| Low + Falling | 94.4% | 94.4% | 94.4% | 94.4% | 96.3% |
| Mid + Falling | 69.1% | 74.9% | 78.4% | 80.2% | 81.6% |
| Mid + Rising | 70.9% | 77.1% | 80.4% | 82.1% | 82.7% |
02 — Swing GG: Bullish (Monthly ATR)
Bullish monthly GG, n=299
10.7%
Baseline day 1
(vs 63% daily)
73.2%
Baseline day 20
(~1 month)
| Metric | Day 1 | Day 3 | Day 5 | Day 10 | Day 15 | Day 20 |
|---|
| Baseline (61.8%) | 10.7% | 25.8% | 35.1% | 54.8% | 67.6% | 73.2% |
| Full ATR (100%) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.4% | 16.4% | 24.4% |
By Weekly PO (n≥15)
| Weekly PO | Day 1 | Day 3 | Day 5 | Day 10 | Day 15 | Day 20 |
|---|
| High + Rising (n=42) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 21.4% | 40.5% | 59.5% | 69.0% |
| High + Falling (n=18) | 16.7% | 38.9% | 44.4% | 66.7% | 72.2% | 72.2% |
| Mid + Rising (n=134) | 6.7% | 19.4% | 32.8% | 56.7% | 70.9% | 76.9% |
| Mid + Falling (n=98) | 18.4% | 33.7% | 40.8% | 55.1% | 65.3% | 69.4% |
02 — Swing GG: Bearish (Monthly ATR)
Bearish monthly GG, n=233
36.1%
Baseline day 1
(3.4x bull, vs 65% daily)
77.3%
Baseline day 20
(~1 month)
| Metric | Day 1 | Day 3 | Day 5 | Day 10 | Day 15 | Day 20 |
|---|
| Baseline (61.8%) | 36.1% | 53.6% | 58.4% | 69.1% | 74.7% | 77.3% |
| Full ATR (100%) | 4.3% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 29.5% | 36.8% | 41.9% |
By Weekly PO
| Weekly PO | Day 1 | Day 3 | Day 5 | Day 10 | Day 15 | Day 20 |
|---|
| High + Rising (n=19) | 36.8% | 63.2% | 63.2% | 78.9% | 84.2% | 84.2% |
| Mid + Rising (n=94) | 35.1% | 52.1% | 57.4% | 68.1% | 75.5% | 77.7% |
| Mid + Falling (n=98) | 30.6% | 53.1% | 58.2% | 65.3% | 72.4% | 75.5% |
03 — Comparison Across Timeframes
GG completion rates by timeframe
| Timeframe |
ATR Ref |
Bull Base 1d |
Bear Base 1d |
Bull Bilbo 1d |
Bear Bilbo 1d |
| Day |
Daily |
63% |
65% |
78% |
90% |
| Multi-Day |
Weekly |
65% |
72% |
74% |
94% |
| Swing |
Monthly |
11% |
36% |
— |
— |
Bilbo filter: 1h PO for Day mode, Daily PO for Multi-Day, Weekly PO for Swing (minimal edge).
Day 1 = same session (Day/Multi-Day) or first trading day (Swing).
★ Bottom Line
Key takeaways across timeframes
- Multi-day bearish Bilbo (daily PO low+falling) = 94% completion day 1 — strongest signal across all studies (n=54). 72% reach full weekly ATR on day 1.
- Swing GGs take weeks to develop. Day 1 completion is just 11% bull / 36% bear. Be patient or size smaller.
- Bearish moves are faster than bullish at EVERY timeframe. Day: 65% vs 63%. Multi-day: 72% vs 65%. Swing: 36% vs 11%.
- The higher the timeframe PO, the less predictive edge it adds. 1h PO for day mode, daily PO for multi-day, weekly PO adds minimal edge for swing.
milkmantrades.com · ATR Levels & Phase Oscillator by Saty Mahajan
@tesrak · @todor · Draft — not independently verified