After price hits the 38.2% ATR level and enters the Golden Gate, it often pulls back before reaching 61.8%. We measured completion rates based on the deepest pullback level, using 10-minute candle closes across 25 years of SPY data.
For each Golden Gate entry (price hits 38.2%), we tracked the deepest level that a 10-minute candle closed beyond during the remainder of the session. We then categorized each GG by its worst pullback and measured the completion rate for each bucket.
This answers a simple question: if a GG has already pulled back to level X, what are the odds it still completes? We checked ATR levels (trigger, previous close) and Pivot Ribbon EMAs on 10-minute and 1-hour timeframes. Only candle closes count — wicks below a level that recover don't qualify.
Read these charts top-to-bottom as a spectrum: the top row is the best case (price never pulled back far) and the bottom is the worst (deep pullback through multiple levels). The further price falls from the 38.2% entry, the less likely the Golden Gate completes.
The trigger level (23.6% ATR) is the natural stop for a Golden Gate trade. When price holds above it (bullish) or below it (bearish), completion rates are in the 84–89% range. Once a 10-minute candle closes on the wrong side of the trigger, you're looking at a coin flip. The further it goes past the trigger — through the previous close, through the opposite trigger — the worse the odds get.
The hierarchy of pullback severity: Fast EMAs (EMA 8, EMA 21 on 10m) are normal intraday noise — nearly every Golden Gate touches them at some point, and completion rates stay near baseline. EMA 48 on the 10-minute chart and EMA 21 on the 1-hour chart are the first meaningful warning signs. But the call/put trigger (23.6% ATR level) is the clearest line — it marks the boundary between a healthy pullback and a failed setup.
For entries: Waiting for a pullback to the trigger level before entering gives you a 38.2% ATR reward to target (distance from trigger to 61.8%), but completion drops to ~32–37%. Entering immediately at 38.2% gives a 62–64% completion rate with a 23.6% ATR reward. The best risk-reward may be entering on a pullback to the 10-minute EMA 8 — it appears 96% of the time, maintains ~59% completion, and offers slightly more reward than the immediate entry.