When SPY opens inside the trigger box and gets a confirmed 3-minute close above the call trigger, there’s a 73.6% chance of hitting the next ATR level. But if price never closes back below the trigger, that number jumps to 97.0%. Across 2,027 qualifying days over 25 years, the invalidation filter is the single strongest edge in this setup.
The trigger box is the zone between the lower trigger (−23.6%) and upper trigger (+23.6%) of the daily ATR levels. When SPY opens inside this box, it starts the day in a neutral zone — no gap through either trigger. Then we wait for a 3-minute candle to close above the upper trigger. That’s the confirmation. The question: does price then reach the 38.2% ATR level?
Reading this: On roughly half of all trading days, SPY opens inside the trigger box. Of those, about 62% get a confirmed 3-minute close above the call trigger. And 73.6% of those go on to hit the 38.2% level — the entry to the Golden Gate.
Probability decays with time. The first hour after the open is highest conviction. After 15:00, the setup barely works. The table shows the overall hit rate, plus the breakdown between clean runs (price never closes a 3m bar back below the trigger) and invalidated trades (price closes back below the trigger at some point before hitting 38.2%).
| Trigger Time | Overall | Yes | No | Clean | Yes | No | Back Below | Yes | No | Edge |
|---|
Yes / No: Yes = hit the 38.2% level that day. No = did not. Click any number to see the specific dates and open them in the chart. “Clean” = price never closed a 3m bar back below the trigger. “Back Below” = it did.
This is the core finding. A 3-minute close back below the call trigger — after the initial confirmation — is a powerful invalidation signal. It cuts the hit rate nearly in half. Avoiding invalidated trades gives you a +37.3 percentage point edge.
The hourly breakdown makes it even clearer. Clean trades triggered before 14:00 have a near-perfect hit rate — effectively 100%. Even invalidated morning trades still hit about 70%. But by afternoon, invalidated trades drop below 50%, and by the last half hour they’re barely above chance.
| Trigger Hour | Clean Hit% | Yes | No | Inval Hit% | Yes | No | Edge |
|---|
When the setup works, it’s fast. Median time from confirmed trigger to hitting 38.2% is just 18 minutes (6 three-minute bars). Three-quarters of winners arrive within an hour.