SPY first reaches the daily call trigger, then loses previous day close, then tags the daily put trigger before noon. Across 653 qualifying days, PDC recovery and downside Golden Gate continuation both happen about three-quarters of the time. Getting all the way back to the call trigger is the harder ask.
The daily call and put triggers are the ±23.6% ATR levels around previous day close. This study starts only after a full intramorning reversal: price is above the call trigger at some point, later crosses below PDC, and reaches the put trigger before 12:00 ET. Outcomes are measured from the first put-trigger touch through the RTH close.
Path rule: rebounds to PDC or the call trigger count only after the first put-trigger bar. Downside ATR levels count from that put-trigger bar onward, so the event starts at the moment the bear-side trigger is live.
This is not a clean binary reversal. PDC recovery is common, but downside continuation is just as common. The key difference is distance: a bounce back to PDC is likely; a full retrace back to the morning call trigger is closer to a coin flip.
| Outcome after put trigger | Rate | Yes | No |
|---|
If you care about first resolution, bearish continuation wins more often. In 58.2% of events, the downside Golden Gate opens before any PDC recovery or opens with no PDC recovery at all. PDC wins that race, or recovers without a downside GG, 41.4% of the time.
Trading read: after the put trigger, PDC is a realistic mean-reversion magnet, but the downside Golden Gate is not invalidated just because PDC later recovers. Both outcomes print often in the same session.
Earlier flips are more volatile. When the reversal completes before 10:30, the -1 ATR touch rate is 23.6%. Across all events, it is 18.5%. Later morning flips still open downside GG at a high rate, but the call-trigger recovery rate drops.
| Put time | N | PDC | Call | GG open | GG comp | -1 ATR |
|---|
The filter uses the latest fully completed hourly bar at the moment the put trigger is touched. If hourly PO compression is active, the event is labeled compression. Otherwise, hourly PO at or above zero is bullish expansion and hourly PO below zero is bearish expansion.
| 1h PO state | N | PDC | Call | GG open | GG comp | -1 ATR | Close < put | Bear first |
|---|
Read: compression is the most bearish filter: lowest PDC recovery at 67.1%, highest close-below-put rate at 44.7%, and bearish GG first/only in 61.9% of events. Bearish hourly expansion has the strongest call-trigger recovery, but it still has elevated downside continuation.
The largest close bucket is below the put trigger. Only 20.5% close back above the call trigger, and another 16.7% close between PDC and the call trigger.