Crypto prop eval vs your own margin at 100-250x · Monte Carlo, 2026-09-27
Eval or Deposit
Reply to @dontbsalti: "you can do 150x on Bybit... you only have positive EV compared to onchain contingent on your spend and pass rate." Same trader on both sides, same cash, same 180 days.
Read
The eval is a call option on drawdown room. $180 buys $1,500 of room at the prop. $180 at 150x buys about $70 before liquidation. The deposit beats the eval only once the cash is about the size of the drawdown room and the trader runs 10-20x, not 150x. A net-negative trader loses the cash either way.
01The setup
Trader. Hourly Normal P&L on $50K notional. Inputs are daily net edge (after fees) in bps and daily vol in %. Both venues get the identical random draws.
Prop side. Breakout Turbo 50K: $180 per attempt, +9% target, 3% static drawdown, 3% daily loss, 80% split, payouts on demand. Barriers checked every hour on equity. Fail and the trader buys another eval until the cash budget is gone. Funded keeps the same limits. Every day closing above the start balance is withdrawn.
Deposit side. The cash budget is the margin. Notional = cash x leverage, capped at $50K to match the eval. Liquidation at 0.4% maintenance, checked every hour. Every day closing above the deposit is withdrawn. 100% kept.
Score. Net = money withdrawn minus money put in, over 180 days, 4,000-10,000 paths. 1% daily vol unless stated.
02Expected net over 180 days
| Net edge, bps/day | Cash | Pass per attempt | Prop EV | Deposit, best leverage | Deposit at 150x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10 | $180 | 8% | -$115 | -$65 (50x) | -$93 |
| -10 | $720 | 8% | -$407 | -$258 (50x) | -$282 |
| 0 | $180 | 24% | +$105 | +$2 (3x) | -$76 |
| 0 | $720 | 23% | +$271 | +$6 (3x) | -$161 |
| 0 | $1,500 | 22% | +$305 | +$13 (3x) | -$134 |
| +10 | $180 | 49% | +$766 | +$246 (10x) | -$57 |
| +10 | $720 | 49% | +$1,420 | +$983 (10x) | +$1 |
| +10 | $1,500 | 48% | +$1,481 | +$2,047 (10x) | +$579 |
| +20 | $720 | 71% | +$2,823 | +$2,350 (10x) | +$202 |
| +20 | $1,500 | 72% | +$2,840 | +$4,895 (10x) | +$1,625 |
| +40 | $720 | 92% | +$8,161 | +$6,950 (20x) | +$786 |
| +40 | $1,500 | 92% | +$8,161 | +$14,479 (20x) | +$6,472 |
At 150x the deposit loses to the eval at every edge and every cash level tested. Hourly checks burn $70 of room in a session. The deposit only wins at 10-20x with cash near $1,500, and then by a lot: no 9% hurdle, 100% kept, and it scales with cash while the eval caps at one account.
03What the numbers say
Pass rate is an output. Zero net edge passes 22-24% per attempt, close to the 25-30% guess in the thread. Edge and vol set it. At 2% daily vol the same edges pass at 17-38% and prop EV drops by half or more. The daily loss limit does the damage.
A coin flip is slightly +EV at the prop. Static drawdown plus on-demand payouts lets a zero-edge trader extract $105-$305 before busting, after fees. The same coin flip on chain is zero minus liquidations. Same asymmetry as the Breakout eval memo.
Capped losses cap at your spend, both venues. A net-negative trader (-10 bps/day, a taker paying fees with no gross edge) loses about the same cash either way. Passes 8% of attempts.
Spend has a ceiling on the prop side. Prop EV flattens once the budget covers the expected attempts (about 4 at zero edge). Deposit EV keeps scaling with cash, so the crossover moves toward the deposit as the cash grows.
04Left out
Fat tails and funding spikes. A 5-sigma hour liquidates a 150x deposit and only dents a 3% drawdown account. Normal draws understate this.
Platform risk. Prop payout delays and rule changes on one side, exchange risk on the other.
Time to first dollar. The prop trader climbs 9% before the first payout. The deposit trader is paid from day one.
Calculator with sliders (edge, vol, cash, leverage, plan, horizon): milkmantrades.com/prop-vs-onchain-calc.html. Model: analyst/prop_vs_onchain/model.py. Findings: PROP_VS_ONCHAIN_FINDINGS.md. Reply thread on X, 2026-09-27.
Monte Carlo, hourly steps, identical draws on both venues. Educational only, not financial advice. @MrMilkTrading