Crypto prop eval vs your own deposit

Buy the eval, or just deposit the cash at 150x?

Same trader on both sides, same cash, same 180 days. The eval is a call option on drawdown room. The deposit is the room itself, at a price. Move the sliders and see which one pays.

After fees. 0 = coin flip after paying the taker. 10 bps/day at 1% vol is Sharpe 1.6 on a 24/7 book.
P&L swing per day on the full $50K notional.
Prop: re-buys evals until this is gone. Deposit: this is the margin.
Notional = cash x leverage, capped at $50K to match the eval.
Funded account keeps the same limits. Payouts on demand, harvested at every new high.
Crypto trades 7 days a week. Hourly barrier checks for both.
running...

 

Prop eval

--expected net, fees paid minus payouts kept
P(you end up ahead)
--
Median outcome
--
Pass rate per attempt
--
Evals bought, avg
--
Fees paid, avg
--
Payouts kept, avg
--
Worst 5% of paths
--
Best 5% of paths
--

Your own deposit

--expected net, profits kept minus margin burned
P(you end up ahead)
--
Median outcome
--
Liquidated within horizon
--
Room before liquidation
--
Notional traded
--
Best leverage for this trader
--
Worst 5% of paths
--
Best 5% of paths
--

Expected net by deposit leverage, with the eval as the bar to beat

Same cash, same trader. Leverage changes the notional and the liquidation distance at the same time.

Own deposit at each leverageProp eval, this plan

What the model does

  1. Draws hourly P&L for one trader: daily edge and daily vol as a share of $50K notional, Normal, no fat tails. Both venues get the identical draws.
  2. Eval: equity must reach the target before it touches the static drawdown or the daily loss limit, checked every hour. Fail and the trader buys another eval until the cash is gone. Pass and the funded account runs the same limits. Every day that closes above the start balance is withdrawn at the split.
  3. Deposit: the cash is the margin. Notional is cash times leverage, capped at $50K so the trade size matches the eval. Liquidation when equity falls to 0.4% of notional, checked every hour. Every day that closes above the deposit is withdrawn in full.
  4. Net = money withdrawn minus money put in. Prop puts in fees. Deposit puts in the margin, which is gone at liquidation.

What it leaves out

  1. Fat tails and funding spikes. A 5-sigma hour liquidates a 150x deposit and only dents a 3% drawdown account.
  2. Prop platform risk, payout delays, and rule changes. Exchange risk on the other side.
  3. Time. The prop trader has to climb 9% before the first payout. The deposit trader is paid from day one.

Model and sweeps: analyst/prop_vs_onchain/model.py. Write-up with the full sweep table: milkmantrades.com/prop-vs-onchain.html. Reply to a thread by @dontbsalti, 2026-09-27. Built by @MrMilkTrading. Educational only, not financial advice.