Milkman Trades — ATR Level Cascade
After the first hit, where does price go next? — 25y SPY, 33,153 RTH events
01 — Headline
Continuation slightly beats retrace overall — but the edge swings hard with time of day
02 — Call Trigger Flow
+0.236 → what happens next?
+0.236
↗
68%
continue
+0.382
avg 20m
↗
+0.236
↘
27%
retrace
PDC
avg 46m
↘
By trigger hour (n=4,400)
03 — Put Trigger Flow
-0.236 → what happens next?
-0.236
↙
67%
continue
-0.382
avg 17m
↘
-0.236
↗
30%
retrace
PDC
avg 44m
↗
By trigger hour (n=4,090)
04 — Inner Band (PDC ± 1 ATR)
All-day continuation vs retrace
| Level | N | Beyond | Behind | Last |
|---|
| +1.00 | 908 | 42% | 35% | 21% |
| +0.786 | 1,492 | 43% | 45% | 11% |
| +0.618 GG done | 2,165 | 41% | 52% | 5% |
| +0.50 | 2,745 | 51% | 44% | 2% |
| +0.382 GG entry | 3,454 | 59% | 37% | 3% |
| +0.236 call trig | 4,400 | 68% | 27% | 4% |
| -0.236 put trig | 4,090 | 67% | 30% | 2% |
| -0.382 GG entry | 3,231 | 55% | 42% | 1% |
| -0.50 | 2,576 | 45% | 51% | 1% |
| -0.618 GG done | 2,116 | 37% | 59% | 2% |
| -0.786 | 1,580 | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| -1.00 | 1,057 | 42% | 46% | 11% |
05 — Extensions (beyond ±1 ATR)
Lower N, faster snap-backs
| Level | N | Beyond | Behind | Last | Med→back |
|---|
| +2.00 | 38 | 26% | 55% | 13% | — |
| +1.786 | 79 | 25% | 46% | 19% | — |
| +1.618 | 139 | 29% | 54% | 12% | 5m |
| +1.50 | 205 | 32% | 56% | 7% | 5m |
| +1.382 | 311 | 43% | 42% | 10% | 11m |
| +1.236 | 488 | 51% | 26% | 19% | 34m |
| -1.236 | 637 | 50% | 39% | 9% | 15m |
| -1.382 | 460 | 41% | 51% | 3% | 3m |
| -1.50 | 361 | 30% | 61% | 2% | 2m |
| -1.618 | 290 | 22% | 69% | 4% | 2m |
| -1.786 | 208 | 30% | 64% | 4% | 5m |
| -2.00 | 123 | 32% | 61% | 5% | 9m |
Single-digit median minutes for retrace at ±1.5+ extensions: tags don’t hold.
06 — Reading the time-of-day
Three regimes — pre-10:00, mid-day, post-15:00
- 09:30–10:00 = continuation regime. Every level lights up green — 76–78% at the triggers, even 70% at ±0.618. Early breaks rarely retrace.
- 10:00–14:00 = balanced. Continuation drops into the 40–55% range; retrace climbs to 35–55%. Trigger trades become coin-flips between continuation and pivot retest.
- 15:00–16:00 = last regime. "Last" climbs to 35–65% for nearly every level. The session runs out before another adjacent level can fire.
- 0.382 is sticky. Both call- and put-side GG entries are retrace-favored on a same-bar basis — expect a fade back to the trigger before the push to 0.50/0.618.
- 0.618 is a magnet but momentum returns past it. Once GG completes, the next-out hit-rate climbs back above 50% on the way to 0.786.
★ Practical reads
Use the cascade as a path-handicapper
- Trigger fired before 10:00: bias is continuation (~77%). The PDC retrace probability under 25% lets you size into the next-level target without much retrace risk.
- Trigger fired 10:00–14:00: roughly coin-flip. Entry needs another filter (HTF PO, compression, gap context) — the cascade alone is no longer enough edge.
- Trigger fired after 15:00: "last" probability is the dominant outcome. Don’t expect a follow-through swing — treat as a last-card scalp with tight bracket.
- Already at ±0.382 sticky-zone: default expectation is a fade back to the trigger before the push to 0.50/0.618. Plan exits accordingly.
- Already at ±1.5+: snap-back to the prior level is fast (median < 10 minutes). Don’t hold a flat position there — either flip with a stop or step aside.