For every first-touch of an ATR level during regular hours since 2000, we ask: was the next adjacent level reached the one further out (continuation) or the one closer to PDC (retrace)? Filterable by the hour of day the level was first hit.
The grid below has one row per ATR level (lower at top, higher at bottom; PDC omitted as origin). Each cell is a (level, hour-bucket) cohort. Click any cell to load its full breakdown on the right: outcome distribution, time-to-next-level, and a 9-bin histogram of how fast the next level arrives. Use the toggle to color the heatmap by which outcome you care about. Striped cells have n < 50.
Click a starting level on the ladder. After each pick, the two adjacent rungs around the current level become live. This includes revisits, so a move from +1.00 back to +0.786 counts as the immediate retrace instead of requiring a full retrace through PDC. The stats panel shows the conditional probability that the next adjacent move is up vs. down vs. end-of-day, given days whose adjacent-walk prefix matches yours.
Try the Up to +1 ATR preset to load the path PDC → +0.236 → +0.382 → +0.50 → +0.618 → +0.786 → +1.00. From there, the down/retrace side is now +0.786, and you can keep walking all the way back toward call trigger, PDC, or back up to GG Open.
This panel answers the retouch question directly: after price hits the trigger and then opens the GG at ±0.382, does a retrace back to the trigger before ±0.618 change the odds of completing the Golden Gate? Once a GG opens, it remains open for the rest of that RTH session.
Each card shows a level. Bars are stacked: green = continuation, blue = retrace, gray = level was last. Reading these top-to-bottom tells you the time-of-day shape for that level. The triggers (±0.236) flip from continuation-dominant in the morning to balanced midday and last-dominant near the close.
| Level | Name | Hour | N | %Beyond | %Behind | %Last | %Ambig | Avg→Bey min | Med→Bey | Avg→Beh min | Med→Beh |
|---|
L: first 3-min bar where high ≥ L. Lower-side: low ≤ L. PDC: low ≤ PDC ≤ high. Gaps over a level still register as a hit at the opening bar.
high ≥ Li+1. Lower-side: low ≤ Li-1. "Beyond" always means further from PDC.
low ≤ Li-1 (price retreats toward PDC). Lower-side: high ≥ Li+1. The "behind" target may or may not have been hit earlier in the day — we only need price to revisit that level after the origin.
Open hour is the cleanest. The 09:30–10:00 column is dominated by green: 76% continuation at +0.236 (call trigger), 78% at -0.236 (put trigger), 70% at -0.618. Early breaks of any level rarely retrace.
Late day is dominated by "last". The 15:00–16:00 column lights up red across every level. The session simply runs out of time; whatever level fired in the final hour is most likely the day's terminal level.
0.382 is sticky on both sides. Both +0.382 and -0.382 retrace more often than they continue overall (49% behind / 41% beyond on the call side; 42% behind / 55% beyond on the put side, slightly less sticky). The Golden-Gate entry rung tends to fade back to the trigger before pushing through to 0.50/0.618.
0.618 is a magnet. Once price reaches Golden-Gate completion, the next-out hit-rate climbs back to ~57% (on the upper side) — meaningfully higher than 0.382. If a Bilbo setup has cleared 0.618, momentum to 0.786 is more reliable than the entry hop was.
Extension extremes resolve fast. Time-to-retrace at ±1.50–1.786 is single-digit minutes — once price tags an extension, the snap-back to the previous level usually arrives within one or two bars. Events are rare but the tape doesn't sit still up there.