Risk toy · not a strategy

MARTINGALE LAB

Bet-sizing simulator for the two progressions in Robuxio: Martingale vs Anti-Martingale. Martingale scales the bet up after losses; anti-martingale bets a fixed % of equity so size shrinks after losses and compounds after wins. The sweep moves part of each new-high profit into a bank that is never re-risked.

One run

Account (at risk) Bank (swept) Total wealth
Bet size placed (log scale)

Monte Carlo

Sample paths (total wealth) Busted path (line ends at bust)
Median total wealth P25–P75 P5–P95
Final total wealth — share of paths

Mechanics

  • Each bet wins with the set probability. A win pays bet × payout; a loss costs the bet.
  • Martingale mode: after a loss, next bet = last bet × factor; a win resets to the base bet. Factor 2.0 = classic doubling, 1.0 = flat betting, below 1.0 backs off after losses.
  • Anti-martingale mode: every bet is a fixed % of the current account (the article uses 10%). Size self-scales — smaller after losses, compounding after wins.
  • Sweep: when a win lifts the account above its high-water mark, the sweep % of that new profit moves to the bank. The bank is never bet again. In anti-martingale mode sweeping trades compounding speed for locked-in profit.
  • If the account cannot cover the scheduled bet, it goes all-in. Below one cent the run is busted — the bank is what remains.
  • Seeded RNG: same seed + same inputs reproduce the same run. Path i of the Monte Carlo uses seed + i.