Milkman Trades — Subway Timing
Completion rate by trigger hour — 25 years of SPY (2000–2025)
01 — Key Stats
Earlier triggers = higher completion — open triggers are gold
86%
Bull open
trigger completion
88%
Bear open
trigger completion
30%
Bear 15:00
still tradeable
16%
Bull 15:00
very low odds
02 — Bullish Timing Bars
Bull GG completion by trigger hour
03 — Bearish Timing Bars
Bear GG completion by trigger hour
04 — Bull Subway Detail
Cumulative completion by hour
Bull Open trigger (n=1,053)
| Hour | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Total |
|---|
| Open | 66.1% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 85.9% |
Bull 09:30 trigger (n=852)
| Hour | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Total |
|---|
| 09:30 | 14.6% | 25.7% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 62.6% |
- Open bull: 66% complete in the first 30 minutes alone
- 09:30 bull: Peak completion shifts to 10:00 hour (25.7%)
05 — Bear Subway Detail
Cumulative completion by hour
Bear Open trigger (n=851)
| Hour | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Total |
|---|
| Open | 72.7% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 87.8% |
Bear 09:30 trigger (n=764)
| Hour | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Total |
|---|
| 09:30 | 17.3% | 26.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 64.4% |
- Open bear: 72.7% complete in 30 min — faster than bull (66.1%)
- 09:30 bear: Peak also at 10:00 (26.7%) — slightly faster than bull
- Selling pressure is faster and more violent at every hour
★ Bottom Line
When to trade the Golden Gate
- Open triggers are the highest conviction trade of the day. When the GG fires at the open (gap through 38.2%), it completes 86–88% of the time. Most complete within the first hour. This is your A+ setup.
- Morning triggers (09:00–10:00) are still good. 57–64% completion with plenty of time for the move to develop. These are solid B-grade setups.
- Afternoon triggers are coin flips. By 13:00–14:00, completion is 39–56%. The day is running out. Size down or skip.
- 15:00 bullish triggers rarely complete. Only 16% completion — there's no time left. But bearish 15:00 triggers still complete 30% because selling cascades are fast.
- Bearish is faster than bullish at every hour. Bear GGs complete more often and more quickly. Selling pressure carries further than buying pressure — plan your bear plays more aggressively.
milkmantrades.com · ATR Levels & Phase Oscillator by Saty Mahajan
@tesrak · @todor · Draft — not independently verified