Milkman Trades — Pullback / Invalidation Study
When to hold and when to cut — 25 years of SPY (2000–2025)
01 — The Core Insight
Trigger break is the single biggest invalidation signal
84%
Bull GG when
trigger holds
45%
Bull GG when
trigger breaks
89%
Bear GG when
trigger holds
51%
Bear GG when
trigger breaks
−39%
Delta
(both directions)
Invalidation hierarchy (strongest to weakest)
02 — Bull Invalidation Table
What happens when bull pullback levels break
| Pullback to... | Freq% | GG% Hit | GG% No Hit | Delta |
|---|
| Upper Trigger | 54% | 45% | 84% | −39% |
| Prev Close | 31% | 36% | 75% | −39% |
| Lower Trigger | 18% | 32% | 70% | −38% |
| 1h EMA 21 | 47% | 52% | 72% | −20% |
| 1h EMA 48 | 43% | 56% | 68% | −12% |
| 10m EMA 48 | 60% | 56% | 74% | −19% |
| 10m EMA 21 | 79% | 62% | 68% | −6% |
| 10m EMA 8 | 93% | 64% | 47% | +17% (noise) |
03 — Bear Invalidation Table
What happens when bear pullback levels break
| Pullback to... | Freq% | GG% Hit | GG% No Hit | Delta |
|---|
| Put Trigger | 62% | 51% | 89% | −38% |
| Prev Close | 34% | 39% | 79% | −39% |
| Call Trigger | 17% | 33% | 72% | −38% |
| 1h EMA 21 | 52% | 51% | 79% | −28% |
| 1h EMA 48 | 49% | 51% | 79% | −28% |
| 10m EMA 48 | 65% | 58% | 78% | −20% |
| 10m EMA 21 | 82% | 64% | 70% | −6% |
| 10m EMA 8 | 92% | 66% | 52% | +15% (noise) |
04 — Practical Hierarchy
Which levels matter for invalidation
- ATR trigger levels are the strongest invalidation signals — −38 to −39% delta
- Prev Close break is equally damaging — same −39% delta
- Hourly EMAs (21 and 48) are meaningful — −12 to −28% delta
- 10m EMA 48 is the last useful signal — −19 to −20%
- 10m EMA 21 is barely significant — only −6% delta
- 10m EMA 8 is pure noise — touches 92–93% of the time, delta inverts
- Hierarchy: ATR Levels > Hourly EMAs > 10m EMA 48 > Noise
★ Bottom Line
When to cut your losses
- The call/put trigger (23.6%) is your stop. Period. When price holds above it, the GG completes 84–89% of the time. When a 10m candle closes below it, you're looking at a coin flip. Exit.
- Watch the 1-hour EMA 21 as an early warning. If a 10m candle closes below the hourly pivot, the GG is in trouble (−20 to −28% delta) even before the trigger breaks. Tighten your stop.
- Ignore fast EMA violations. Price closing below the 10m EMA 8 or EMA 21 is normal — it happens on 80–93% of all Golden Gates. It's not a sell signal. It's just how price moves.
- The deeper the pullback, the worse the odds. There's a clean hierarchy: trigger > prev close > hourly EMAs > 10m EMA 48 > noise. If you're past the trigger, get out.
milkmantrades.com · ATR Levels & Phase Oscillator by Saty Mahajan
@tesrak · @todor · Draft — not independently verified