Milkman Trades — Golden Gate Entry Optimization
Where to enter for best EV — 25 years of SPY (2000–2025)
01 — Key Findings
Entry selection matters more than you think
+10%
Immediate entry
EV at 38.2%
+11%
EMA 8 pullback
best EV
−3%
50% midpoint
negative EV — use caution
02 — Bullish Entry Table
All bull entries ranked by EV
| Entry | Appears | GG% | R:R | EV |
|---|
| Immediate 38.2% | 100% | 63% | 1.6x | +10% |
| EMA 8 (10m) | 97% | 62% | 1.4x | +11% |
| EMA 21 (10m) | 88% | 58% | 1.3x | +8% |
| EMA 48 (10m) | 70% | 47% | 1.9x | +7% |
| EMA 21 (1h) | 57% | 42% | 2.3x | +7% |
| EMA 48 (1h) | 50% | 48% | 1.1x | +0% |
| 50% midpoint | 94% | 60% | 0.4x | −3% |
| Trigger retrace | 71% | 43% | — | +16% |
| Prev Close retrace | 39% | 20% | — | +12% |
03 — Bearish Entry Table
All bear entries ranked by EV
| Entry | Appears | GG% | R:R | EV |
|---|
| Immediate 38.2% | 100% | 65% | 1.6x | +10% |
| EMA 8 (10m) | 97% | 63% | 1.4x | +12% |
| EMA 21 (10m) | 89% | 59% | 1.2x | +9% |
| EMA 48 (10m) | 73% | 47% | 1.7x | +6% |
| EMA 21 (1h) | 62% | 39% | 3.2x | +9% |
| EMA 48 (1h) | 58% | 43% | 1.6x | +3% |
| 50% midpoint | 95% | 63% | 0.4x | −3% |
| Trigger retrace | 79% | 48% | — | +18% |
| Prev Close retrace | 44% | 22% | — | +14% |
04 — Takeaways
Practical entry rules
- Best all-around: Enter immediately at 38.2% or wait for an EMA 8 pullback — both are +10–12% EV
- Patient sniper: 1h EMA 21 gives 2.3–3.2x R:R but only appears 57–62% of the time
- Use caution: The 50% midpoint looks safe (appears 94–95%) but is −3% EV — negative expectancy
- High-conviction retrace: Trigger retrace is +16–18% EV when it appears, but only in 71–79% of setups
- Bear entries are slightly better across the board — EMA 8 bear is +12% vs bull +11%
- 1h EMA 48 is breakeven for bulls (+0% EV) and barely positive for bears (+3%) — too deep
★ Bottom Line
Where to enter
- The simplest entry is often the best. Immediate entry has the highest completion rate (63–65%), appears every time, and delivers +10% ATR expected value. Waiting costs more than it saves.
- If you must wait, wait for the 10m EMA 8. It appears 97% of the time (you almost never miss the trade), adds a tiny bit of reward, and has marginally better EV (+11%).
- Be cautious entering at the 50% midpoint. The move is already half done — this entry has negative EV because the remaining reward is small relative to the risk of falling back to the trigger.
- Deep pullbacks are for patient traders only. The 1h EMA 21 has the best R:R (2.3–3.2x) but only 39–42% win rate and only appears 57–62% of the time. Size accordingly.
milkmantrades.com · ATR Levels & Phase Oscillator by Saty Mahajan
@tesrak · @todor · Draft — not independently verified