Milkman Trades — Call→Put Morning Reversal
Full intraday flip: call trigger → PDC break → put trigger before noon (n=653)
01 — The Setup
A morning fade with three sequential gates
SPY tags the daily +23.6% call trigger, then loses previous day close, then prints the daily −23.6% put trigger before 12:00 ET. All outcomes are measured from the first put-trigger bar through the RTH close. n=653 days over 25 years of SPY.
73.7%
Recovered PDC
481/653 days
75.3%
Opened downside GG
(−38.2% ATR)
43.3%
Recovered call trigger
283/653 days
41.2%
Closed below put trigger
269/653 days
02 — The Race
Which fires first after the put trigger?
- Bear GG before PDC recovery: 58.2% of events
- PDC reclaim before bear GG: 41.4%
- Trading read: after the put trigger, PDC is a real bounce magnet but the bear GG is not invalidated by a PDC tag — both prints are common in the same session.
03 — Where the Day Closes
Distribution of RTH close after the reversal
| Close zone | Days | Share |
|---|
| Below put trigger | 269 | 41.2% |
| Put → PDC | 141 | 21.6% |
| PDC → Call | 109 | 16.7% |
| Above call trigger | 134 | 20.5% |
04 — Hourly PO Filter at the Put Trigger
Compression is the most bearish flavor of this setup
| Hourly PO state | PDC recovery | Call recovery | Closes < put trigger | Bear GG first/only |
|---|
| Compression | 67.1% | 32.3% | 44.7% | 61.9% |
| Bullish expansion (PO ≥ 0) | 75.3% | 45.5% | 38.0% | 56.0% |
| Bearish expansion (PO < 0) | 75.0% | 46.0% | 40.0% | 58.0% |
Filter uses the latest fully completed 1h bar at the moment the put trigger is touched.
★ Bottom Line
How to trade the morning fade
- Both sides print often. 75% downside GG continuation AND 74% PDC recovery happen in the same bucket of days — size for whichever target you take first, then re-enter for the other if path allows.
- PDC is a realistic mean-reversion magnet, but a full retrace back to the morning call trigger only happens 43% of the time. Don't expect a full V-shape.
- Compression is the bearish flavor. When hourly PO is in compression at the put trigger, PDC recovery drops to 67% and the day closes below the put trigger 45% of the time.
- The largest single close bucket is below the put trigger (41%). Selling cascades that already broke PDC carry into the close more often than they fully reverse.
milkmantrades.com · ATR Levels & Phase Oscillator by Saty Mahajan
Source: /call-to-put-reversal.html · 25 years of SPY (2000–2025)