Milkman Trades — Golden Gate Basics
25 years of SPY (2000–2025)
01 — What Is the Golden Gate?
The zone from 38.2% to 61.8% of the day's ATR
63.0%
Bullish GG
completion
65.0%
Bearish GG
completion
14%
Days reaching
full ATR from close
Level-to-level probability chain
- Golden Gate = the zone between 38.2% and 61.8% of ATR
- Each level-to-level step gets progressively harder to reach
- Only 14% of days travel the full ATR from prior close
02 — Gap Fill Rates
How often gaps fill by size
| Gap Size | Up Fill% | Down Fill% |
|---|
| < 0.1% | 92.0% | 92.9% |
| 0.1 – 0.25% | 76.5% | 78.9% |
| 0.25 – 0.5% | 58.6% | 62.9% |
| 0.5 – 0.75% | 44.6% | 47.7% |
| 0.75 – 1.0% | 40.2% | 34.2% |
| 1.0 – 1.5% | 28.3% | 36.7% |
| 1.5 – 2.0% | 20.0% | 31.1% |
| 2.0 – 3.0% | 27.5% | 41.5% |
| 3.0%+ | 43.8% | 15.0% |
- Tiny gaps (<0.1%) fill 92%+ of the time
- Large gap-ups (3%+) reverse-fill 43.8% — mean reversion
- Large gap-downs (3%+) only fill 15% — panic selling sticks
03 — Absolute Hit Rates
How far does price reach from open?
| ATR Level | Bull% | Bear% |
|---|
| Trigger | 67% | 63% |
| 38.2% | 53% | 50% |
| 61.8% | 33% | 32% |
| 78.6% | 23% | 24% |
| 100% | 14% | 16% |
- Trigger is reached on ~2/3 of days in both directions
- The 38.2% level is reached about half the time
- Only ~15% of days travel the full ATR
- Bearish slightly more likely to reach extremes (100%: 16% vs 14%)
★ Bottom Line
How to use ATR Levels
- Trade level-to-level, not close-to-ATR. Each hop is 55–80% probability. Targeting the full ATR from close (14%) is a lottery ticket.
- Small gaps are free money. Gaps under 0.25% fill 77–93% of the time. Fade them confidently. Large gap-downs (3%+) do NOT fill — don't catch the knife.
- Use the trigger as your directional bias. Price reaches the 23.6% trigger on ~99% of days in at least one direction. Whichever side it hits first sets the tone.
- The Golden Gate is your bread and butter. Once 38.2% is hit, there's a 63–65% chance of reaching 61.8%. That's the core trade — everything else is refinement.
milkmantrades.com · ATR Levels & Phase Oscillator by Saty Mahajan
@tesrak · @todor · Draft — not independently verified